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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
@
TB Home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
Monday 2023-09-25 · 19:15 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US 🌧 Rain Spread -6.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

PHI
55.2%
TB
44.8%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Baker Mayfield (TB): -0.073 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • PHI offense: +0.029 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • TB offense: -0.046 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • PHI on 3 more days rest than TB
  • TB defense: +0.025 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PHI 22
–
TB 20
Projected margin: PHI by 2 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

PHI

Quez Watkins WR Out Hamstring
Boston Scott RB Out Concussion

TB

SirVocea Dennis LB Out Hamstring
Calijah Kancey DT Out Calf
Cody Mauch G Questionable Back
Carlton Davis CB Questionable Toe
Vita Vea DT Questionable Pectoral
Devin White LB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 25
–
TB 11

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:10 FG PHI (3:10) 4-J.Elliott 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. PHI 3 – TB 0
  • Q2 08:37 FG TB (8:37) 4-C.McLaughlin 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. PHI 3 – TB 3
  • Q2 03:41 TD PHI (3:41) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 13-O.Zaccheaus for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN [96-G.Gaines]. PHI 9 – TB 3
  • Q2 00:03 FG PHI (:03) 4-J.Elliott 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. PHI 13 – TB 3
  • Q3 09:21 TD PHI (9:21) (No Huddle) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 19 – TB 3
  • Q3 03:46 SAF PHI (3:46) 64-A.Stinnie reported in as eligible. 1-R.White up the middle tackled in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (41-N.Morrow). PHI 22 – TB 3
  • Q4 13:32 FG PHI (13:32) 4-J.Elliott 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. PHI 25 – TB 3
  • Q4 09:27 TD TB (9:27) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 13-M.Evans for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 25 – TB 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 8 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (12:23) 5-J.Camarda punts 48 yards to PHI 11, Center-97-Z.Triner. 18-B.Covey to PHI 25 for 14 yards (29-C.Izien).

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 1 at the 14
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 95%

    (9:14) (Shotgun) 14-K.Gainwell up the middle to TB 15 for -1 yards (23-R.Neal, 31-A.Winfield).

  • Q1 TB 4th & 5 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (6:40) 5-J.Camarda punts 60 yards to PHI 4, Center-97-Z.Triner. 18-B.Covey pushed ob at TB 44 for 52 yards (44-S.Tucker).

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 15 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 93%

    (3:10) 4-J.Elliott 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (1:41) 5-J.Camarda punts 74 yards to PHI 4, Center-97-Z.Triner. 18-B.Covey to PHI 19 for 15 yards (29-C.Izien; 51-J.Russell).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 5 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 46%

    (14:49) 10-B.Mann punts 38 yards to TB 16, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 9 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 95%

    (8:37) 4-C.McLaughlin 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 99%

    (9:21) (No Huddle) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 7 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (7:06) 5-J.Camarda punts 48 yards to PHI 13, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 98%

    (13:32) 4-J.Elliott 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 2 at the 11 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 97%

    (:38) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 11-A.Brown to TB 7 for 4 yards (27-Z.McCollum).