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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Philadelphia Eagles
4th & 1 at the 1
Philadelphia Eagles 13 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3
What Actually Happened
(9:21) (No Huddle) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+4.13 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
65% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.01 EP
- 35% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.57 EP
KICK
+2.01 EP
- 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.65 EP
PUNT
+0.15 EP
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
