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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 14

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:14) (Shotgun) 14-K.Gainwell up the middle to TB 15 for -1 yards (23-R.Neal, 31-A.Winfield).

The Three Options

GO +3.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.94 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 14, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model