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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 11

Philadelphia Eagles 25 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 11

What Actually Happened

(:38) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 11-A.Brown to TB 7 for 4 yards (27-Z.McCollum).

The Three Options

GO +2.14 EP
What Happened
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +3.91 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +2.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.69 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.24 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.45 EP