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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 15

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(8:37) 4-C.McLaughlin 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.61 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 15, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model