Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 13 at the 78

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

(1:41) 5-J.Camarda punts 74 yards to PHI 4, Center-97-Z.Triner. 18-B.Covey to PHI 19 for 15 yards (29-C.Izien; 51-J.Russell).

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
69% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 78, worth -4.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model