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New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll
@
SF Home

San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
Thursday 2023-09-21 · 20:15 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread 10.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

NYG
32.9%
SF
67.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Brock Purdy (SF): +0.247 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • SF offense: +0.087 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • SF defense: -0.065 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • NYG offense: +0.026 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • NYG defense: +0.073 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYG 20
–
SF 26
Projected margin: SF by 6 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

NYG

Saquon Barkley RB Out Ankle
Ben Bredeson G Out Concussion
Azeez Ojulari DE Out Hamstring
Andrew Thomas T Out Hamstring
Micah McFadden LB Questionable Neck
Wan'Dale Robinson WR Questionable Knee

SF

Brandon Aiyuk WR Questionable Shoulder
Ambry Thomas CB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 12
–
SF 30

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:47 FG SF (8:47) 4-J.Moody 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. NYG 0 – SF 3
  • Q1 03:23 FG NYG (3:23) 9-G.Gano 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. NYG 3 – SF 3
  • Q2 07:53 TD SF (7:53) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 10-R.Bell for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYG-53-O.Ximines, Defensive Offside, declined. NYG 3 – SF 9
  • Q2 01:44 TD SF (1:44) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 3 – SF 16
  • Q2 00:18 FG NYG (:18) 9-G.Gano 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. NYG 6 – SF 17
  • Q3 10:06 TD NYG (10:06) 31-M.Breida right tackle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 12 – SF 17
  • Q3 04:12 FG SF (4:12) 4-J.Moody 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. NYG 12 – SF 20
  • Q4 12:51 FG SF (12:51) 4-J.Moody 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. NYG 12 – SF 23
  • Q4 06:05 TD SF (6:05) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right to 19-D.Samuel for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 12 – SF 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 10 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 96%

    (8:47) 4-J.Moody 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 6 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 83%

    (3:23) 9-G.Gano 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 2 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 25%

    (:53) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to NYG 7, Center-46-T.Pepper. 20-E.Gray to NYG 10 for 3 yards (10-R.Bell).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 8 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (14:22) 6-J.Gillan punts 60 yards to SF 28, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (6:21) 6-J.Gillan punts 48 yards to SF 27, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 3 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 56%

    (:18) 9-G.Gano 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 7 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (12:24) 6-J.Gillan punts 49 yards to SF 8, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 3-R.McCloud to SF 14 for 6 yards (47-C.Brown). PENALTY on SF-35-T.Swilling, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at SF 8.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 8 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (10:56) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to NYG 48, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 20-E.Gray. PENALTY on SF-38-S.Jean-Charles, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at NYG 48.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 98%

    (4:12) 4-J.Moody 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 9 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (2:22) 6-J.Gillan punts 49 yards to SF 31, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 10 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 92%

    (12:51) 4-J.Moody 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (11:12) 6-J.Gillan punts 58 yards to SF 18, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 3-R.McCloud to SF 30 for 12 yards (30-D.Holmes).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 2 at the 44 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 39%

    (3:25) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 39 yards to NYG 5, Center-46-T.Pepper, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 6 at the 91 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (2:13) 6-J.Gillan punts 52 yards to SF 39, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 3-R.McCloud to SF 49 for 10 yards (52-C.Coughlin).