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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 11

San Francisco 49ers 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(8:47) 4-J.Moody 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +2.23 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.57 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP
KICK +2.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 22, worth -0.43 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model