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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 50

San Francisco 49ers 3 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(:53) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to NYG 7, Center-46-T.Pepper. 20-E.Gray to NYG 10 for 3 yards (10-R.Bell).

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.06 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 50, worth -2.54 EP
KICK -1.35 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 14, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP