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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 38

New York Giants 3 – San Francisco 49ers 17

What Actually Happened

(:18) 9-G.Gano 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +2.10 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 38, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.91 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 47, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model