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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 3

San Francisco 49ers 17 – New York Giants 12

What Actually Happened

(4:12) 4-J.Moody 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +3.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.10 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 3, worth +0.39 EP
KICK +2.09 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP