Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 11 at the 76

New York Giants 12 – San Francisco 49ers 23

(11:12) 6-J.Gillan punts 58 yards to SF 18, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 3-R.McCloud to SF 30 for 12 yards (30-D.Holmes).

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.73 EP
66% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model