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New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll
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MIN Home

Minnesota Vikings

HC Kevin O'Connell
Sunday 2023-01-15 · 16:50 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 2.5 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

NYG
48.8%
MIN
51.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIN defense: +0.063 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • NYG defense: +0.062 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Daniel Jones (NYG): +0.113 EPA/dropback in prior starts (NYG starting Daniel Jones in place of Davis Webb)

Predicted Final Score

NYG 23
–
MIN 24
Projected margin: MIN by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 19

NYG

No players on the report.

MIN

Cameron Dantzler CB Questionable Ankle
Kene Nwangwu RB Questionable Illness
Harrison Smith S Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 19 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 31
–
MIN 24

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:26 TD MIN (8:26) 64-B.Brandel reported in as eligible. 8-K.Cousins up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – MIN 6
  • Q1 05:19 TD NYG (5:19) 26-S.Barkley left end for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – MIN 7
  • Q1 01:08 TD NYG (1:08) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short middle to 18-I.Hodgins for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 13 – MIN 7
  • Q2 03:29 FG NYG (3:29) 9-G.Gano 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. NYG 17 – MIN 7
  • Q2 00:50 TD MIN (:50) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 17-K.Osborn for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 17 – MIN 13
  • Q3 11:42 TD NYG (11:42) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 82-D.Bellinger for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 23 – MIN 14
  • Q3 07:50 TD MIN (7:50) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 84-I.Smith for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYG-57-J.Davis, Defensive Offside, declined. NYG 24 – MIN 20
  • Q4 12:38 FG MIN (12:38) 1-G.Joseph 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. NYG 24 – MIN 24
  • Q4 07:52 TD NYG (7:52) 26-S.Barkley up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 30 – MIN 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (3:18) 14-R.Wright punts 59 yards to NYG 9, Center-42-A.DePaola. 80-R.James to NYG 19 for 10 yards (25-T.Jackson).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 3 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 28%

    (14:23) 14-R.Wright punts 44 yards to NYG 9, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 80-R.James.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (3:29) 9-G.Gano 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 12 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (4:21) 6-J.Gillan punts 43 yards to MIN 24, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 5-J.Reagor to MIN 24 for no gain (44-N.McCloud). FUMBLES (44-N.McCloud), recovered by MIN-29-K.Boyd at MIN 24.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 2 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 52%

    (:32) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 87-T.Hockenson to NYG 25 for 18 yards (20-J.Love).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 5 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 92%

    (12:38) 1-G.Joseph 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 1 at the 7
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 98%

    (8:38) 8-D.Jones up the middle to MIN 5 for 2 yards (94-D.Tomlinson).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 11 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (6:23) 14-R.Wright punts 61 yards to NYG 17, Center-42-A.DePaola. 80-R.James to NYG 24 for 7 yards (26-K.Nwangwu).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 1 at the 55 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (3:28) 8-D.Jones up the middle to NYG 46 for 1 yard (95-K.Tonga; 94-D.Tomlinson).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 15 at the 59 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (3:03) 6-J.Gillan punts 47 yards to MIN 12, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 5-J.Reagor.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 8 at the 52 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 30%

    (1:51) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 87-T.Hockenson to NYG 49 for 3 yards (29-X.McKinney).