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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 55

New York Giants 31 – Minnesota Vikings 24

What Actually Happened

(3:28) 8-D.Jones up the middle to NYG 46 for 1 yard (95-K.Tonga; 94-D.Tomlinson).

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +1.78 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 55, worth -2.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 16, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model