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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 20

Minnesota Vikings 21 – New York Giants 24

What Actually Happened

(12:38) 1-G.Joseph 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +1.63 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.00 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 20, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 30, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model