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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 53

Minnesota Vikings 7 – New York Giants 14

What Actually Happened

(14:23) 14-R.Wright punts 44 yards to NYG 9, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 80-R.James.

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.97 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 53, worth -2.73 EP
KICK -1.19 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 15, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP