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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 52

Minnesota Vikings 24 – New York Giants 31

What Actually Happened

(1:51) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 87-T.Hockenson to NYG 49 for 3 yards (29-X.McKinney).

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.16 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 52, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +0.39 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.68 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -0.60 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 15, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model