Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 12 at the 67

New York Giants 24 – Minnesota Vikings 21

What Actually Happened

(4:21) 6-J.Gillan punts 43 yards to MIN 24, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 5-J.Reagor to MIN 24 for no gain (44-N.McCloud). FUMBLES (44-N.McCloud), recovered by MIN-29-K.Boyd at MIN 24.

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.21 EP
67% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 67, worth -3.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model