4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
KC Away

Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
@
LV Home

Las Vegas Raiders

HC Josh McDaniels
Saturday 2023-01-07 · 16:30 Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US 🏟 Dome Spread -9.0 O/U 51.5

Win Probability

KC
65.0%
LV
35.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.145 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Patrick Mahomes (KC): +0.277 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • LV defense: +0.057 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

KC 27
–
LV 22
Projected margin: KC by 5 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

KC

Skyy Moore WR Out Hand
Harrison Butker K Questionable Back
Mecole Hardman WR Questionable Pelvis
L'Jarius Sneed CB Questionable Hip
Joe Thuney G Questionable Ankle

LV

Darien Butler LB Out Concussion
Josh Jacobs RB Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 31
–
LV 13

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:58 TD KC (12:58) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 1-J.McKinnon for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – LV 0
  • Q1 07:20 FG LV (7:20) 2-D.Carlson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. KC 7 – LV 3
  • Q2 15:00 TD KC (15:00) (Shotgun) 2-R.Jones left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 13 – LV 3
  • Q2 00:53 TD KC (:53) 19-K.Toney left end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 20 – LV 3
  • Q2 00:05 FG KC (:05) 7-H.Butker 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. KC 24 – LV 3
  • Q3 07:00 FG LV (7:00) 2-D.Carlson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. KC 24 – LV 6
  • Q4 11:06 TD KC (11:06) (Shotgun) 10-I.Pacheco left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 30 – LV 6
  • Q4 06:43 TD LV (6:43) (Shotgun) 3-J.Stidham pass short left to 13-H.Renfrow for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-C.Jones]. KC 31 – LV 12

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 13 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 71%

    (7:20) 2-D.Carlson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 2 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 55%

    (3:33) 5-T.Townsend punts 37 yards to LV 5, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-29-C.Lammons.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 99%

    (6:11) (Shotgun) 3-J.Stidham pass incomplete short right to 17-D.Adams.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 11 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 92%

    (7:00) 2-D.Carlson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 3 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (3:42) 6-A.Cole punts 63 yards to KC 2, Center-47-T.Sieg, out of bounds.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 2 at the 65
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (:13) 5-T.Townsend punts 61 yards to LV 4, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-13-N.Johnson.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 6 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (14:14) 6-A.Cole punts 59 yards to KC 33, Center-47-T.Sieg. 19-K.Toney pushed ob at KC 38 for 5 yards (34-B.Bolden).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 16 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 37%

    (6:18) 5-T.Townsend punts 39 yards to LV 10, Center-41-J.Winchester. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 18 for 8 yards (41-J.Winchester).