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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 11 at the 20

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 24

What Actually Happened

(7:00) 2-D.Carlson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.43 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 20, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model