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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 65

Las Vegas Raiders 6 – Kansas City Chiefs 24

What Actually Happened

(3:42) 6-A.Cole punts 63 yards to KC 2, Center-47-T.Sieg, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.10 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 65, worth -3.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 23, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model