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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 65

Kansas City Chiefs 24 – Las Vegas Raiders 6

What Actually Happened

(:13) 5-T.Townsend punts 61 yards to LV 4, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-13-N.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.74 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 65, worth -3.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 23, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP