4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 42

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(3:33) 5-T.Townsend punts 37 yards to LV 5, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-29-C.Lammons.

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.13 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 42, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -0.48 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP