Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 92

Las Vegas Raiders 6 – Kansas City Chiefs 24

(14:14) 6-A.Cole punts 59 yards to KC 33, Center-47-T.Sieg. 19-K.Toney pushed ob at KC 38 for 5 yards (34-B.Bolden).

The Three Options

GO -2.72 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.38 EP
54% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 92, worth -5.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model