4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
HOU Away

Houston Texans

HC Lovie Smith
@
IND Home

Indianapolis Colts

HC Jeff Saturday
Sunday 2023-01-08 · 13:00 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 38.0

Win Probability

HOU
48.0%
IND
52.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU offense: -0.242 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • IND offense: -0.225 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • QB edge to HOU: Sam Ehlinger (IND) -0.354 vs Davis Mills (HOU) -0.163 EPA/dropback (IND starting Sam Ehlinger in place of Nick Foles)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

HOU 20
–
IND 21
Projected margin: IND by 1 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

HOU

Phillip Dorsett WR Out Hamstring
Jimmy Morrissey C Out Concussion
Steven Nelson CB Questionable Illness
O.J. Howard TE Questionable Hip
Ogbonnia Okoronkwo DE Questionable Illness

IND

Nick Foles QB Out Ribs
Kylen Granson TE Out Ankle
Stephon Gilmore CB Questionable Wrist
Brandon Facyson CB Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 32
–
IND 31

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 22 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:22 TD HOU (11:22) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short middle to 13-B.Cooks for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 6 – IND 0
  • Q1 09:44 FG HOU (9:44) 7-K.Fairbairn 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. HOU 10 – IND 0
  • Q1 03:59 TD IND (3:59) (Shotgun) 4-S.Ehlinger pass short middle to 11-M.Pittman for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 10 – IND 6
  • Q2 10:41 TD HOU (10:41) (Shotgun) 4-S.Ehlinger pass short middle intended for 35-D.Jackson INTERCEPTED by 52-J.Greenard [92-R.Green] at IND 39. 52-J.Greenard for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 16 – IND 7
  • Q3 06:48 TD IND (6:48) 63-D.Pinter reported in as eligible. 21-Z.Moss left guard for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 17 – IND 13
  • Q3 03:57 TD HOU (3:57) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep right to 88-J.Akins for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 23 – IND 14
  • Q3 01:00 TD IND (1:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short middle intended for 88-J.Akins INTERCEPTED by 26-R.McLeod at HOU 27. 26-R.McLeod for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 24 – IND 20
  • Q4 10:34 TD IND (10:34) (Shotgun) 4-S.Ehlinger pass short left to 81-M.Alie-Cox for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 24 – IND 27
  • Q4 03:37 FG IND (3:37) 7-C.McLaughlin 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack. HOU 24 – IND 31
  • Q4 00:58 TD HOU (:58) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep middle to 88-J.Akins for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-G.Stewart]. HOU 30 – IND 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 11 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 93%

    (9:44) 7-K.Fairbairn 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 1 at the 19
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 93%

    (6:57) 4-S.Ehlinger scrambles right end to HOU 14 for 5 yards (52-J.Greenard; 36-J.Owens).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 7 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 47%

    (:58) 11-C.Johnston punts 36 yards to IND 9, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 15-K.Coutee.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 17 at the 98
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (14:15) 6-M.Haack punts 60 yards to HOU 38, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 25-D.King to IND 46 for 16 yards (41-G.Stuard).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 3 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 57%

    (6:26) (Shotgun) 4-S.Ehlinger pass short left to 35-D.Jackson to HOU 14 for 27 yards (5-J.Pitre).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 15 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 52%

    (1:37) 11-C.Johnston punts 36 yards to IND 7, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 15-K.Coutee.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (11:55) (Shotgun) 4-S.Ehlinger pass incomplete short left to 80-J.Woods.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 10 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (9:38) 11-C.Johnston punts 47 yards to IND 38, Center-46-J.Weeks. 15-K.Coutee to HOU 49 for 13 yards (29-M.Stewart; 49-J.Hansen).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 2 at the 76
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (1:53) 6-M.Haack punts 57 yards to HOU 19, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 1-T.Smith.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (9:07) 11-C.Johnston punts 51 yards to IND 16, Center-46-J.Weeks. 15-K.Coutee MUFFS catch, recovered by IND-39-D.Baker at IND 17. 39-D.Baker ran ob at IND 24 for 7 yards (53-B.Cashman).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 7 at the 36 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 69%

    (3:37) 7-C.McLaughlin 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 12 at the 48 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 40%

    (1:26) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep left to 13-B.Cooks ran ob at IND 18 for 30 yards. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 20 at the 28 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.57 EP
    p(convert) 19% p(FG) 84%

    (:58) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep middle to 88-J.Akins for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-G.Stewart].