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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 20 at the 28

Houston Texans 24 – Indianapolis Colts 31

What Actually Happened

(:58) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep middle to 88-J.Akins for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-G.Stewart].

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
What Happened
  • 19% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +4.24 EP
  • 81% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 28, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 38, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.57 EP