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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 17 at the 98

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(14:15) 6-M.Haack punts 60 yards to HOU 38, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 25-D.King to IND 46 for 16 yards (41-G.Stuard).

The Three Options

GO -4.24 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.92 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 98, worth -6.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (115 yards).

PUNT -2.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 53, worth -2.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model