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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 3

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Houston Texans 17

What Actually Happened

(11:55) (Shotgun) 4-S.Ehlinger pass incomplete short left to 80-J.Woods.

The Three Options

GO +2.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.86 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 3, worth +0.24 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model