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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 67

Houston Texans 24 – Indianapolis Colts 28

What Actually Happened

(9:07) 11-C.Johnston punts 51 yards to IND 16, Center-46-J.Weeks. 15-K.Coutee MUFFS catch, recovered by IND-39-D.Baker at IND 17. 39-D.Baker ran ob at IND 24 for 7 yards (53-B.Cashman).

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.65 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 67, worth -3.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.05 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 25, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP