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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 76

Indianapolis Colts 14 – Houston Texans 24

What Actually Happened

(1:53) 6-M.Haack punts 57 yards to HOU 19, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 1-T.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.97 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 76, worth -4.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 34, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP