4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
DET Away

Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
@
GB Home

Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
Sunday 2023-01-08 · 20:20 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US 🌨 Snow Spread 5.5 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

DET
57.2%
GB
42.8%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET offense: +0.177 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • QB edge to DET: Aaron Rodgers (GB) -0.022 vs Jared Goff (DET) +0.174 EPA/dropback
  • GB offense: +0.074 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DET 25
–
GB 24
Projected margin: DET by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

DET

Kayode Awosika G Out Ankle
Michael Brockers DE Questionable Ankle
Jason Cabinda FB Questionable Knee
DeShon Elliott S Questionable Shoulder
Jeff Okudah CB Questionable Elbow
Frank Ragnow C Questionable Foot

GB

Josiah Deguara TE Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 20
–
GB 16

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:25 FG GB (11:25) 2-M.Crosby 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. DET 0 – GB 3
  • Q1 07:04 FG DET (7:04) 17-M.Badgley 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 3 – GB 3
  • Q1 01:59 FG GB (1:59) 2-M.Crosby 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. DET 3 – GB 6
  • Q2 13:01 FG GB (13:01) 2-M.Crosby 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. DET 3 – GB 9
  • Q2 00:02 FG DET (:02) 17-M.Badgley 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 6 – GB 9
  • Q3 08:07 TD DET (8:07) 67-M.Nelson and 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 30-Ja.Williams right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 12 – GB 9
  • Q3 03:22 TD GB (3:22) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 13-A.Lazard for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 13 – GB 15
  • Q4 05:57 TD DET (5:57) (Shotgun) 30-Ja.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 19 – GB 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

    (11:25) 2-M.Crosby 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (10:38) 3-J.Fox punts 57 yards to GB 14, Center-47-S.Daly. 25-K.Nixon to GB 23 for 9 yards (51-J.Woods).

  • Q1 GB 4th & 1 at the 68
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 74%

    (8:35) (No Huddle) 13-A.Lazard left end to GB 31 for -1 yards (34-A.Anzalone).

  • Q1 DET 4th & 9 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 92%

    (7:04) 17-M.Badgley 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 16 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 77%

    (1:59) 2-M.Crosby 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 3 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (:29) 3-J.Fox punts 40 yards to GB 29, Center-47-S.Daly. 25-K.Nixon to GB 45 for 16 yards (44-M.Rodriguez).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 11 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 79%

    (13:01) 2-M.Crosby 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 6 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 84%

    (6:16) 17-M.Badgley 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 1 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 57%

    (2:39) (Shotgun) 28-A.Dillon left tackle to DET 38 for 2 yards (23-M.Hughes).

  • Q3 DET 4th & 2 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (13:23) 3-J.Fox punts 50 yards to GB 16, Center-47-S.Daly. 25-K.Nixon to GB 25 for 9 yards (38-C.Moore).

  • Q3 GB 4th & 7 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 71%

    (9:37) 2-M.Crosby 53 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Crossbar, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 5 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (2:28) 3-J.Fox punts 41 yards to GB 22, Center-47-S.Daly. 25-K.Nixon to GB 26 for 4 yards (49-C.Board).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 4 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (14:08) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 37 yards to DET 25, Center-56-J.Coco, downed by GB-38-I.Gaines.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 2 at the 25
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 86%

    (9:18) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 4-D.Chark to GB 22 for 3 yards (23-J.Alexander).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 1 at the 15 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 95%

    (1:15) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 4-D.Chark to GB 6 for 9 yards (51-K.Barnes).