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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 62

Green Bay Packers 16 – Detroit Lions 13

What Actually Happened

(14:08) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 37 yards to DET 25, Center-56-J.Coco, downed by GB-38-I.Gaines.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.19 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 62, worth -3.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 21, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model