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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 63

Detroit Lions 13 – Green Bay Packers 16

What Actually Happened

(2:28) 3-J.Fox punts 41 yards to GB 22, Center-47-S.Daly. 25-K.Nixon to GB 26 for 4 yards (49-C.Board).

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.10 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 21, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model