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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 15

Detroit Lions 20 – Green Bay Packers 16

What Actually Happened

(1:15) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 4-D.Chark to GB 6 for 9 yards (51-K.Barnes).

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
What Happened
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +2.29 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +2.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.74 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.63 EP