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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 19

Detroit Lions 0 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(7:04) 17-M.Badgley 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.22 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model