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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 4

Green Bay Packers 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(11:25) 2-M.Crosby 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +3.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.34 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 4, worth +0.57 EP
KICK +2.35 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.32 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP