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CAR Away

Carolina Panthers

HC Steve Wilks
@
NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Dennis Allen
Sunday 2023-01-08 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

CAR
44.9%
NO
55.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Sam Darnold (CAR): -0.129 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NO offense: -0.079 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • NO defense: -0.045 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CAR 21
–
NO 22
Projected margin: NO by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

CAR

Yetur Gross-Matos DE Questionable Hamstring
Brian Burns DE Questionable Ankle
Matt Ioannidis DT Questionable Back
D'Onta Foreman RB Questionable Knee
Joel Iyiegbuniwe LB Questionable Hamstring

NO

Paulson Adebo CB Out Hamstring
Andrus Peat G Out Ankle
Justin Evans S Questionable Shoulder
Taysom Hill TE Questionable Back
James Hurst T Questionable Foot
Juwan Johnson TE Questionable Quadricep
Marcus Maye S Questionable Shoulder
Ryan Ramczyk T Questionable Not injury related - resting player
Ty Summers LB Questionable Oblique

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 10
–
NO 7

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 26 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:08 TD NO (11:08) 66-L.Kidd reported in as eligible. 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 12-C.Olave for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 5, YAC 20 CAR 0 – NO 6
  • Q3 06:52 TD CAR (6:52) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold left tackle to NO 1 for 2 yards (32-T.Mathieu). FUMBLES (32-T.Mathieu), recovered by CAR-73-M.Jordan at NO -3. TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – NO 7
  • Q4 00:03 FG CAR (:03) 4-E.Pineiro 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. CAR 10 – NO 7

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 7 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (8:01) 10-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to NO 18, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 5 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (5:10) 4-B.Gillikin punts 42 yards to CAR 13, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 18-A.Roberts.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 1 at the 78
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.38 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (3:12) 10-J.Hekker punts 54 yards to NO 24, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 89-R.Shaheed.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 6 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 86%

    (14:20) 3-W.Lutz 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 9 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:18) 10-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to NO 15, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 89-R.Shaheed.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 1 at the 20
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 92%

    (7:21) 66-L.Kidd reported in as eligible. 41-A.Kamara right guard to CAR 23 for -3 yards (49-F.Luvu).

  • Q3 NO 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (5:11) 4-B.Gillikin punts 68 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (2:47) 10-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to NO 27, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 89-R.Shaheed.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 19 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (11:59) 4-B.Gillikin punts 37 yards to CAR 20, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 18-A.Roberts.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 4 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 48%

    (8:22) 10-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to NO 15, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 89-R.Shaheed.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 3 at the 78
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (7:02) 4-B.Gillikin punts 39 yards to CAR 39, Center-49-Z.Wood. 18-A.Roberts to CAR 44 for 5 yards (50-A.Dowell; 42-C.Hansen). FUMBLES (50-A.Dowell), recovered by CAR-45-G.Ricci at CAR 41. 45-G.Ricci to CAR 41 for no gain (49-Z.Wood).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 11 at the 60 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (4:56) 10-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to NO 10, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 89-R.Shaheed.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 4 at the 51 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 32%

    (1:57) 4-B.Gillikin punts 38 yards to CAR 13, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-50-A.Dowell.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 12 at the 37 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 67%

    (1:24) 3-W.Lutz 55 yard field goal is BLOCKED (24-C.Henderson), Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.