Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 65

Carolina Panthers 0 – New Orleans Saints 7

(13:18) 10-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to NO 15, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 89-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.12 EP
64% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 65, worth -3.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model