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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 26

New Orleans Saints 7 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(14:20) 3-W.Lutz 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.65 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.72 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model