Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 11 at the 60

Carolina Panthers 7 – New Orleans Saints 7

(4:56) 10-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to NO 10, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 89-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.48 EP
68% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 60, worth -3.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model