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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 59

Carolina Panthers 0 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(8:01) 10-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to NO 18, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.38 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 59, worth -3.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 18, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model