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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 68

New Orleans Saints 7 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(5:11) 4-B.Gillikin punts 68 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.75 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 26, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model