Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- LA offense: -0.036 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- QB edge to LAC: Justin Herbert (LAC) -0.011 vs Baker Mayfield (LA) -0.113 EPA/dropback
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 17
LA
LAC
Pulled fresh for 2022 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 01:13 FG LA (1:13) 8-M.Gay 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon. LA 3 – LAC 0
- Q2 13:47 TD LAC (13:47) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler left guard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 3 – LAC 6
- Q2 08:37 TD LAC (8:37) 30-A.Ekeler right guard for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 3 – LAC 13
- Q2 04:14 TD LA (4:14) 41-M.Brown up the middle for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 9 – LAC 14
- Q2 00:18 FG LAC (:18) 15-C.Dicker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LA 10 – LAC 17
- Q3 08:50 TD LAC (8:50) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 7-G.Everett for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 10 – LAC 23
- Q4 12:16 TD LAC (12:16) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 89-D.Parham for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 10 – LAC 30
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 LA 4th & 11 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(12:19) 11-R.Dixon punts 36 yards to LAC 24, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.
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Q1 LAC 4th & 10 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(9:27) 16-J.Scott punts 48 yards to LA 14, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-B.Powell.
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Q1 LA 4th & 5 at the 5Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EPp(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%
(1:13) 8-M.Gay 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.
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Q2 LA 4th & 18 at the 41Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 23% p(FG) 57%
(10:32) 11-R.Dixon punts 31 yards to LAC 10, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by LA-56-C.Rozeboom.
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Q2 LAC 4th & 10 at the 22Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 90%
(:18) 15-C.Dicker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
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Q3 LAC 4th & 8 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(4:37) 16-J.Scott punts 36 yards to LA 23, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-B.Powell.
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Q3 LA 4th & 15 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(1:22) 11-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to LAC 19, Center-42-M.Orzech. 1-D.Carter ran ob at LAC 30 for 11 yards (33-N.Scott).
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Q4 LA 4th & 3 at the 68Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EPp(convert) 54%
(11:21) 11-R.Dixon punts 51 yards to LAC 17, Center-42-M.Orzech. 1-D.Carter pushed ob at LAC 26 for 9 yards (23-K.Williams).
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Q4 LAC 4th & 2 at the 56Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EPp(convert) 60%
(6:42) 16-J.Scott punts 44 yards to LA 12, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-B.Powell.
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Q4 LA 4th & 19 at the 97Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(5:16) 11-R.Dixon punts 57 yards to LAC 40, Center-42-M.Orzech. 1-D.Carter to LAC 46 for 6 yards (44-D.Hardy; 56-C.Rozeboom).
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Q4 LAC 4th & 9 at the 39 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.09 EPp(convert) 34% p(FG) 62%
(1:12) 16-J.Scott punts 33 yards to LA 6, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-33-D.Leonard.