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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 39

Los Angeles Chargers 31 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(1:12) 16-J.Scott punts 33 yards to LA 6, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-33-D.Leonard.

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +2.25 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 39, worth -1.04 EP
KICK +0.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 48, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.09 EP