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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 68

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 31

What Actually Happened

(11:21) 11-R.Dixon punts 51 yards to LAC 17, Center-42-M.Orzech. 1-D.Carter pushed ob at LAC 26 for 9 yards (23-K.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.27 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 26, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP