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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 5

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:13) 8-M.Gay 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +2.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.60 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 5, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP