4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 18 at the 41

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(10:32) 11-R.Dixon punts 31 yards to LAC 10, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by LA-56-C.Rozeboom.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.23 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 41, worth -2.35 EP
KICK -0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model