Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 19 at the 97

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 31

(5:16) 11-R.Dixon punts 57 yards to LAC 40, Center-42-M.Orzech. 1-D.Carter to LAC 46 for 6 yards (44-D.Hardy; 56-C.Rozeboom).

The Three Options

GO -4.16 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.56 EP
72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 97, worth -6.01 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (114 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model