4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
DAL Away

Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
@
TEN Home

Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
Thursday 2022-12-29 · 20:15 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US 🌧 Rain Spread -14.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

DAL
70.9%
TEN
29.1%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL offense: +0.194 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • QB edge to DAL: Joshua Dobbs (TEN) -0.178 vs Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.141 EPA/dropback (TEN starting Joshua Dobbs in place of Malik Willis)
  • TEN offense: -0.082 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • TEN defense: +0.027 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DAL 26
–
TEN 19
Projected margin: DAL by 7 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

DAL

Leighton Vander Esch LB Out Neck
Tony Pollard RB Questionable Thigh
Micah Parsons LB Questionable Hand

TEN

Dylan Cole LB Out Ankle
Zach Cunningham LB Out Elbow
Bud Dupree LB Out Pectoral
Amani Hooker S Out Knee
Nicholas Petit-Frere T Out Ankle
Jeffery Simmons DT Out Ankle
Ryan Tannehill QB Out Ankle
Josh Thompson CB Out Concussion
Denico Autry DE Doubtful Biceps
Kristian Fulton CB Doubtful Groin
Derrick Henry RB Doubtful Hip

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 27
–
TEN 13

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:41 TD DAL (4:41) 21-E.Elliott left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 6 – TEN 0
  • Q2 15:00 FG DAL (15:00) 19-B.Maher 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 10 – TEN 0
  • Q2 01:08 FG TEN (1:08) 14-R.Bullock 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. DAL 10 – TEN 3
  • Q2 00:02 FG TEN (:02) 14-R.Bullock 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. DAL 10 – TEN 6
  • Q3 08:52 TD DAL (8:52) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 86-D.Schultz for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 16 – TEN 6
  • Q3 02:10 TD TEN (2:10) (Shotgun) 11-J.Dobbs pass short left to 2-R.Woods for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 17 – TEN 12
  • Q4 12:03 TD DAL (12:03) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 86-D.Schultz for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN-47-A.Adams was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. DAL 23 – TEN 13
  • Q4 06:28 FG DAL (6:28) 19-B.Maher 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 27 – TEN 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 3 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 29%

    (12:40) 5-B.Anger punts 38 yards to TEN 13, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (10:13) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 49 yards to DAL 22, Center-46-M.Cox. 9-K.Turpin pushed ob at DAL 35 for 13 yards (38-D.Harris). PENALTY on TEN-38-D.Harris, Illegal Motion, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 35.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (3:47) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 49 yards to DAL 24, Center-46-M.Cox. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 35 for 11 yards (42-J.Jones; 13-R.McMath).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 4 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 93%

    (15:00) 19-B.Maher 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 5 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 38%

    (6:43) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 39 yards to DAL 8, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 9 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 92%

    (1:08) 14-R.Bullock 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (13:34) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 55 yards to DAL 16, Center-46-M.Cox. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 27 for 11 yards (54-A.Smith). PENALTY on DAL-1-K.Joseph, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 21.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 2 at the 26
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 85%

    (5:17) (Shotgun) 25-H.Haskins up the middle to DAL 24 for 2 yards (90-D.Lawrence).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 10 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 44%

    (9:58) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 5 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 84%

    (6:28) 19-B.Maher 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 10 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (5:06) 5-B.Anger punts 42 yards to TEN 18, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 2-R.Woods. PENALTY on DAL-1-K.Joseph, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at TEN 18.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 15 at the 47 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 38%

    (3:54) (Shotgun) 11-J.Dobbs pass incomplete short right to 16-T.Burks [56-D.Fowler].

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 7 at the 50 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 31%

    (2:00) 5-B.Anger punts 41 yards to TEN 9, Center-45-M.Overton, downed by DAL-1-K.Joseph.