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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 50

Dallas Cowboys 27 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 5-B.Anger punts 41 yards to TEN 9, Center-45-M.Overton, downed by DAL-1-K.Joseph.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.33 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 50, worth -1.77 EP
KICK -0.56 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP